Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf436…4591 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52 (-19%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$74
crypto 4% +$9
world 2% +$11
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.8% -47.3% 43% 14% -44.4%
≤30d 14 -34.3% -40.5% 50% 21% -41.8%
≤90d 21 -17.9% -25.8% 52% 33% -34.0%
all 21 -17.9% -25.8% 52% 33% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 33% -34.0%
10% -32.9% 29% -40.3%
15% -39.3% 29% -46.1%
20% -45.3% 14% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage48d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$19 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $8 +$1 +10%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $4 +$11 +276%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $6 41m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 41m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $9 42m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 42m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $8 43m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 43m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $7 44m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $6 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $8 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $12 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $14 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 9¢ $3 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $10 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $18 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $22 36h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 16d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 28d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 72¢ $5 29d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 83¢ $8 29d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 83¢ $8 29d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.02 · official $41.02 (match) · 51 history records