Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf438…9559
sports · 102 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$78,158 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$77,893 · open −$265
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157,815
Realized−$77,893
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$8,834
Open positions21
Markets (closed)81 / 102
History coverage24d
Avg bet$8,883
Trades / day139.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 21 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202,055
7 days−$152,231
14 days−$112,904
30 days−$77,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 78¢ $75,345 $75,131 −$215 (-0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 43¢ 44¢ $25,548 $26,700 +$1,152 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $20,188 $20,390 +$202 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 52¢ $13,500 $13,125 −$375 (-3%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 39¢ $11,000 $9,750 −$1,250 (-11%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 51¢ 51¢ $5,117 $5,118 +$0 (+0%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 17¢ 18¢ $2,773 $2,855 +$82 (+3%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 24¢ 24¢ $1,114 $1,137 +$23 (+2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Over 47¢ 50¢ $689 $733 +$44 (+6%)
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals No 54¢ 52¢ $631 $614 −$18 (-3%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 31¢ $589 $571 −$18 (-3%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 47¢ 48¢ $390 $403 +$12 (+3%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 32¢ 35¢ $361 $395 +$34 (+9%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $322 $357 +$35 (+11%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Over 70¢ 75¢ $189 $202 +$14 (+7%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 55¢ 56¢ $193 $198 +$5 (+3%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 61¢ 62¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $37 $42 +$5 (+13%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 77¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+7%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 0¢ $1,303 $0 −$1,303 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 12¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 8¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 0¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1,031 +$447 +43%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4,141 −$4,141 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $129 −$128 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $94 −$91 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,310 −$1,303 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $159 −$159 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $3,417 +$4,011 +117%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $10,305 +$12,595 +122%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $168 +$481 +286%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $1 +$3 +300%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $154 +$107 +69%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3,607 +$1,341 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $14,000 +$6,000 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20,562 +$23,045 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $368 +$104 +28%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,993 +$6,075 +203%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10,027 −$10,027 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $246 −$246 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $518 −$518 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 12 $3,321 −$3,321 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $498 −$498 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $3,430 −$3,430 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 12 $6,429 −$6,429 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 12 $11,396 −$11,396 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 12 $19,928 −$15,178 -76%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww Jun 12 $18,808 −$18,808 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 12 $22,223 −$22,223 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? Jun 12 $20,175 −$20,175 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $55,135 −$55,135 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 12 $10,080 −$10,080 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $6,008 −$6,008 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $9,200 −$9,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 12 $7,851 −$7,851 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $6,600 −$6,600 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 12 $9,600 −$9,600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$33,772
other 6% −$33,885
world 1% −$10,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 1m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $207 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $5 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 6m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $218 8m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $250 10m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $196 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $265 12m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $30 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $211 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $4 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $272 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $98 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $25 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $4 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $71 20m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $115 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $331 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 28m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $250 29m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $80 29m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $7 31m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $85 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $98 36m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $50 39m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $209 41m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $26 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -16.0% -24.0% 43% 41% -43.3%
≤30d 81 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 49% -18.9%
≤90d 81 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 49% -18.9%
all 81 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 49% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover139.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 49% -18.9%
10% -22.1% 46% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.6% 42% -33.8%
20% -36.5% 30% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157,815.24 · official $157,815.28 (match) · 3500 history records