Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf439…3b66 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$3
sports 37% $0
crypto 4% +$1
politics 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.6% +6.4% 69% 69% +1.0%
≤30d 35 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -6.6%
≤90d 35 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -6.6%
all 36 -3.9% -13.1% 53% 53% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 53% -10.4%
10% -21.4% 50% -19.0%
15% -29.0% 44% -26.8%
20% -36.0% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 $0 +31%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +34%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +136%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +88%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +134%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 21m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL No 7¢ $0 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 18h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $1 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 45h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.87 (match) · 65 history records