Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf439…9830 crypto 1200 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,789 (-11%) realized −$2,791 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%761W / 440L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$106
14 days−$164
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,879
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 45% -15.4%
≤30d 367 -6.8% -15.6% 53% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 1201 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 33% -15.5%
all 1201 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 33% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 33% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 21% -23.6%
15% -29.4% 14% -31.0%
20% -36.3% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$2,791
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses761 / 440
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1201 / 1200
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 70¢ 74¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $55 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$22 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $49 −$11 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$27 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$12 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $27 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $22 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.19 · official $17.84 · 3500 history records