Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf43b…7bc6 politics 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,668 (+2%) realized +$1,668 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%26W / 80L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$900per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$43
other 31% +$17
sports 21% +$1,684
culture 4% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 42 +2.1% -7.6% 12% 2% -7.4%
all 106 -1.5% -10.8% 25% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 8% -8.0%
10% -19.4% 8% -16.8%
15% -27.2% 8% -24.8%
20% -34.3% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,153) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$6 · ×13.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$1,668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses26 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage133d
Avg bet$900
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $512 $513 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,018 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $808 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $836 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $900 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,009 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $261 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 03 $382 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $320 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $242 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $267 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $269 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $469 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,046 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,225 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $533 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $346 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $311 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $311 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $311 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,420 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,789 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $4,368 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $6,553 −$7 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $6,718 −$5 -0%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $1,480 +$1,366 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20? Mar 26 $86 +$1 +1%
Kings vs. Mavericks Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Mar 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 20 $35 −$13 -37%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $407 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $407 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $430 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 24h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $406 25h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $406 27h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $512 2d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 5d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $870 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $822 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $823 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $808 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $809 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $807 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $808 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $835 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $836 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $729 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $730 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $898 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $900 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $774 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $775 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $907 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $320 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.68 · official $512.68 (match) · 348 history records