Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf43c…a89b crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$228 (+13%) realized +$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+83.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +102.2% +83.0% 57% 54% -7.0%
≤30d 28 +102.2% +83.0% 57% 54% -7.0%
≤90d 28 +102.2% +83.0% 57% 54% -7.0%
all 28 +102.2% +83.0% 57% 54% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +83.0% 54% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here +65.4% 46% -15.9%
15% +49.5% 36% -24.0%
20% +34.8% 25% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +103% → late +101% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$36 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $64 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $54 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$14 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $254 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $183 +$70 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $154 −$46 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $137 −$27 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $272 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$44 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$170 +1595%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $36 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $35 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records