Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf43d…ec49 politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
politics 36% −$17
economics 5% −$2
sports 3% −$11
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 109 +1.7% -8.0% 6% 5% -9.5%
all 123 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage116d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $280 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $293 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $234 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $445 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $238 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $451 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $283 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $272 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $399 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 32h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 47h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $262 29d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $262 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $262 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $262 30d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 30d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 31d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 31d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $215 32d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 33d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 33d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $252 34d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $252 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records