Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F4 0xf43d…8abc sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$212 (-7%) realized −$212 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$648per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$346

7 days+$295

14 days+$100

30 days+$100

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-26.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+8.9%	-1.4%	50%	50%	+1.0%
≤30d	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	40%	40%	-6.7%
≤90d	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	40%	40%	-6.7%
all	5	-19.2%	-26.9%	40%	40%	-6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.9%	40%	-6.7%
10%	-33.9%	40%	-15.7%
15%	-40.3%	20%	-23.8%
20%	-46.1%	20%	-31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$291 vs −$161 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$212

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage12d

Avg bet$648

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$1,511	+$346	+23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,015	−$51	-5%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$198	−$195	-98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 09	$240	−$236	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$274	+$236	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	94¢	$1,857	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,511	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	48¢	$964	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1,015	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$198	10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	50¢	$240	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	53¢	$274	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records