Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf440…314a politics 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$14
world 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.9% -13.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -3.9% -13.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 22 -3.9% -13.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -3.5% -12.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage251d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $379 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $190 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $220 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2 $0 -21%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1 $0 -19%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $159 $0 -0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 17 $19 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 5h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 9h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 10h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 15h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 15h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 17h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 17h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 17h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 19h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 20h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 21h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 21h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 24h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 26h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 28h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 30h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 30h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 34h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 36h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 39h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 41h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.30 · official $374.30 (match) · 113 history records