trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -21.6% | -29.1% | 17% | 17% | -16.8% |
| all | 26 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 23% | 23% | +55.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.7% | 23% | +55.8% |
| 10% | -12.9% | 23% | +40.9% |
| 15% | -21.3% | 23% | +27.3% |
| 20% | -29.0% | 23% | +14.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 10¢ | $60 | $29 | −$31 (-52%) |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 40¢ | 28¢ | $30 | $21 | −$9 (-31%) |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 10¢ | $25 | $16 | −$9 (-38%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? | Jun 05 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 18 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 10 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 10 | $50 | +$35 | +70% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 10 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Sacrifice" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio | Apr 08 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $30 | +$63 | +211% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 08 | $43 | +$453 | +1054% |
| Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $10 | +$7 | +68% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 01 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars | Apr 01 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Mar 22 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Mar 22 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 22 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 22 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | Mar 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | Feb 28 | $99 | +$148 | +150% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $99 | +$607 | +614% |