Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf448…0e96 crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+6%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate84%143W / 28L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day70.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$78
other 3% +$16
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +3.0% -6.8% 84% 40% -4.3%
≤30d 171 +3.0% -6.8% 84% 40% -4.3%
≤90d 171 +3.0% -6.8% 84% 40% -4.3%
all 171 +3.0% -6.8% 84% 40% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 40% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 21% -13.4%
15% -23.8% 11% -21.8%
20% -31.3% 6% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses143 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day70.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.95 · official $19.95 (match) · 417 history records