Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf44d…28b8 crypto 923 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,869 (-37%) realized −$2,875 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%430W / 482L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$330
sports 22% −$80
other 5% −$48
finance 2% −$15
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -21.4% -28.9% 64% 6% -11.1%
≤30d 328 -35.5% -41.6% 45% 8% -21.2%
≤90d 912 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 29% -15.2%
all 912 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 29% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 29% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 28% -23.3%
15% -36.4% 27% -30.7%
20% -42.6% 26% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$2,875
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses430 / 482
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions11
Markets (closed)912 / 923
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 912 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 83¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.40 · official $121.08 (match) · 3500 history records