Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf44e…c6a0 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$104 (+8%) realized +$129 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%42W / 55L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$121
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$38
sports 37% +$123
crypto 0% +$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +0.0% -9.5% 45% 44% +1.7%
≤30d 97 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 42% +1.0%
≤90d 97 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 42% +1.0%
all 97 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 42% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 42% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 41% -8.7%
15% -27.8% 38% -17.5%
20% -34.9% 31% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses42 / 55
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)97 / 112
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
France to win the second half? Yes 63¢ 23¢ $42 $15 −$27 (-63%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 74¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+53%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 $0 -48%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -60%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$14 +67%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $12 +$9 +70%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +51%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 −$14 -55%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $28 −$15 -54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$22 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 26 $57 +$38 +66%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $3 +$8 +257%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$10 +67%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $12 +$8 +65%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$32 +106%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$13 +52%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$12 +57%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -83%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +50%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$21 +56%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 24 $12 −$8 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 43m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 54m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 55m
France to win the second half? SELL Yes 55¢ $55 59m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
France to score first vs. Norway? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 12h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $9 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 16h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 26¢ $10 16h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 18h
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 18h
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 18h
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 59¢ $57 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.46 · official $194.16 · 247 history records