Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf451…77e8
sports · 10 markets active 3h ago
0.5score
+$22 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$100
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $56 −$4 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 −$4 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 +$16 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$23
other 38% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
≤30d 7 +4.1% -5.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
≤90d 7 +4.1% -5.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
all 7 +4.1% -5.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 29% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 29% -11.3%
15% -23.1% 29% -19.9%
20% -30.6% 14% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.80 · official $99.80 (match) · 22 history records