Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf453…3d80
crypto · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$71 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$40 +191%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 +$49 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$40 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $74 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$24 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$193 +1800%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $84 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$34 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $71 −$65 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $113 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $91 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$30 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$99
other 1% −$1
sports 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 77¢ $70 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $10 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 36% -12.1%
≤30d 66 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 36% -12.1%
≤90d 66 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 36% -12.1%
all 66 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 36% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 30% -20.5%
15% -25.1% 27% -28.2%
20% -32.5% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.57 · official $28.57 (match) · 284 history records