Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf453…e1fd politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$1
other 14% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage104d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $104 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $104 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 17d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 17d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 29d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $104 38d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $104 38d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 43d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 44d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $105 70d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $3 70d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $88 70d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $14 70d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 77d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 77d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 85d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 86d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $105 89d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $105 90d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $105 95d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $105 96d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 99d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 99d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 101d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 101d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 103d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records