Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf455…9d55 crypto 885 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,969 (+19%) realized −$3,198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate42%531W / 729L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day178.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,837
7 days−$3,755
14 days−$3,795
30 days−$3,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$670
other 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 504 -87.3% -88.5% 8% 6% -63.6%
≤30d 1260 -33.1% -39.5% 42% 22% -21.1%
≤90d 1260 -33.1% -39.5% 42% 22% -21.1%
all 1260 -33.1% -39.5% 42% 22% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.5% 22% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.3% 12% -28.6%
15% -50.6% 7% -35.5%
20% -55.4% 3% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses531 / 729
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1260 / 885
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day178.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$12 -199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records