Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf456…3855 sports 817 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$799 (-5%) realized −$747 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%251W / 541L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$364
7 days+$127
14 days+$522
30 days+$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,239
politics 11% +$178
crypto 4% −$214
other 4% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +8.0% -2.3% 31% 31% -4.2%
≤30d 229 +2.8% -7.0% 34% 34% -1.1%
≤90d 640 -11.3% -19.7% 30% 30% -20.6%
all 792 -12.0% -20.4% 32% 31% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 31% -17.1%
10% -28.0% 30% -25.0%
15% -34.9% 30% -32.3%
20% -41.3% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$747
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses251 / 541
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions14
Markets (closed)792 / 817
History coverage108d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 32¢ 18¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-42%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 33¢ 18¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Over 19¢ 8¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-61%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-93%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 486 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$19 +126%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $22 +$18 +79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$9 +170%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$41 +170%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 +$116 +1876%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$31 +304%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 +$58 +711%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$28 +344%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 +$15 +89%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$27 +262%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 +$34 +99%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$45 +248%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$19 +238%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 14¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $15 12m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 45¢ $5 13m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 48¢ $15 19m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 57m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 57m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 58m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 58m
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $9 59m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 99¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 43¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $22 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $14 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 13h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $43 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $6 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 15h
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) BUY Colombia 6¢ $5 15h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Colombia 11¢ $8 15h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.94 · official $80.87 (match) · 1949 history records