Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf456…b921 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$239 (+3%) realized +$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$212
7 days+$213
14 days+$213
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$18
other 38% +$214
crypto 14% +$2
tech 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.4% +2.6% 100% 33% +1.2%
≤30d 5 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 20% -2.5%
≤90d 12 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 8% -6.3%
all 14 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 7% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 7% -6.7%
10% -15.6% 7% -15.6%
15% -23.8% 7% -23.8%
20% -31.2% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage98d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $743 +$1 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $532 +$211 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 14 $530 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $523 +$6 +1%
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? May 22 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8? May 09 $520 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of April? May 01 $524 +$1 +0%
Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 28 $523 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $522 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $516 +$6 +1%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 03 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $515 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $515 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $510 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $743 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $532 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $530 11d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 99¢ $523 26d
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? BUY No 100¢ $520 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 43d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $524 51d
Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $523 56d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $522 63d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 99¢ $516 70d
Knicks vs. Grizzlies BUY Knicks 100¢ $516 77d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $515 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 100¢ $515 91d
Bucks vs. Heat BUY Heat 99¢ $510 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records