Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf456…d697 crypto 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,883 (-18%) realized −$1,698 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%118W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$220
14 days−$400
30 days−$984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$1,652
other 7% −$341
sports 7% −$262
world 4% −$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -70.2% -73.0% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤30d 35 -23.7% -30.9% 34% 26% -48.8%
≤90d 272 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 34% -30.7%
all 272 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 34% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 34% -30.7%
10% -36.2% 22% -37.3%
15% -42.4% 15% -43.4%
20% -48.0% 11% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$1,698
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses118 / 154
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)272 / 273
History coverage60d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $300 $115 −$185 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $461 −$134 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$22 -81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $180 −$112 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $73 −$45 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$4 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $85 +$10 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $40 +$7 +17%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $37 $0 -1%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $155 −$154 -99%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $149 +$6 +4%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$26 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $13 +$13 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 29 $15 −$2 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $6 +$9 +146%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $3 +$3 +113%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali May 29 $174 −$172 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $142 +$32 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 25 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 22 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 22 $106 −$77 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 22 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 22 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 22 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 19 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 19 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 19 $285 −$186 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 19 $310 −$139 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 19 $298 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $15 −$8 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 18 $103 +$35 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $327 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $461 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $37 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $21 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $27 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $67 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 21¢ $67 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $180 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $15 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $12 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.60 · official $114.60 (match) · 661 history records