Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F4 0xf459…a1eb sports 34 markets active 1d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$367 (+15%) realized +$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$70
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$338
sports 35% +$21
crypto 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +33.3% +20.6% 62% 62% -1.7%
≤30d 20 +33.2% +20.5% 60% 60% -0.9%
≤90d 34 +17.3% +6.1% 62% 59% +4.2%
all 34 +17.3% +6.1% 62% 59% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 59% +4.2%
10% -4.0% 44% -5.8%
15% -13.3% 38% -14.9%
20% -21.8% 29% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$28 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage40d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? AND Will Netherlands win on 202 Jun 20 $40 +$28 +68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $4 +$6 +146%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $192 −$192 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $48 +$23 +48%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $30 +$19 +62%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $76 +$30 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $81 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$52 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 +$66 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +115%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $51 +$13 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $358 +$160 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $331 +$49 +15%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$131 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $101 −$6 -6%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $101 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Team to Take First Corner BUY Sweden 40¢ $4 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 34h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 64¢ $39 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? AND Will Netherlands win on 202 BUY 59¢ $40 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 3d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 3d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 62¢ $74 3d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 71¢ $76 3d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 66¢ $81 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $66 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $60 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records