Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf45d…5b2d crypto 822 markets active 16h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$92 (+1%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%596W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$38
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$43
sports 4% +$4
other 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -7.3% -16.1% 70% 59% -8.6%
≤30d 231 +4.4% -5.5% 75% 64% -5.3%
≤90d 449 -16.9% -24.8% 60% 50% -28.0%
all 822 +0.2% -9.4% 73% 59% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 59% -9.0%
10% -18.0% 40% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 23% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses596 / 226
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)822 / 822
History coverage153d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 822 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 −$6 -26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2190 history records