Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf45d…fc79 other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,508 (-1%) realized −$1,509 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%34W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,277per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$31
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$342
politics 35% −$109
sports 10% −$1,771
culture 4% −$12
economics 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 40 +3.4% -6.5% 10% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 95 +1.7% -8.0% 8% 4% -10.6%
all 174 +4.3% -5.6% 20% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 12% -10.2%
10% -14.6% 11% -18.8%
15% -22.9% 10% -26.6%
20% -30.4% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,856) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized−$1,509
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses34 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,277
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $438 $438 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $281 $282 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,081 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,621 −$6 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,903 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,225 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,491 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,270 −$5 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $47 +$72 +152%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,470 −$6 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $3,577 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,411 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $424 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $514 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,195 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,278 −$3 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $56 +$106 +188%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $46 +$51 +109%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $60 +$29 +48%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,110 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $5,067 −$7 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $438 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $527 2h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $528 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $363 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $363 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $349 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $350 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,086 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $803 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $805 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $926 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $928 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $931 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $932 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $754 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $756 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $281 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $945 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $946 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 12d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.22 · official $720.22 (match) · 576 history records