Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf461…05f5 politics 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,613 (-3%) realized −$1,613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%9W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$858per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$32
other 33% −$1,594
sports 7% −$39
economics 3% $0
world 3% −$2
crypto 2% +$17
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -9.2% -17.8% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 59 -5.0% -14.1% 15% 10% -12.4%
all 59 -5.0% -14.1% 15% 10% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 10% -12.4%
10% -22.3% 8% -20.8%
15% -29.8% 8% -28.5%
20% -36.7% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,358) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$36 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$1,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses9 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage73d
Avg bet$858
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $330 $330 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $381 +$1 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $438 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $554 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $417 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $507 −$1 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 25 $35 −$35 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 19 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 08 $1,578 −$1,578 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $750 +$2 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3,246 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,869 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $3,086 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,107 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $996 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,395 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,501 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,446 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,459 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,521 −$2 -0%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 09 $34 +$26 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $319 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $320 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $437 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $438 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $512 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $513 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $388 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $388 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $457 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $458 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $493 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $494 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $454 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $455 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $542 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $542 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $554 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $554 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $513 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $514 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $531 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $531 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $417 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $417 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $556 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $557 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $493 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $494 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $421 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.67 · official $329.67 (match) · 165 history records