Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf46a…1ada
sports · 440 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$75 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$75 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses209 / 228
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)437 / 440
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 437 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$49
14 days−$24
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 53¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 55¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 45¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $6 +$8 +130%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $14 +$10 +74%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 +$4 +78%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 −$2 -40%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$3 -45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$6 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$6 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $23 +$1 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 12 $9 −$7 -76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $7 +$4 +51%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 −$2 -16%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $9 +$8 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$8 +107%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $7 −$4 -57%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 11 $14 +$5 +36%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $7 +$8 +110%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $7 +$5 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 +$3 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 +$4 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5 +$6 +107%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $8 +$4 +53%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% +$106
weather 4% −$23
crypto 1% −$2
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $5 46m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $5 52m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 94¢ $15 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 52¢ $2 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $5 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $1 5h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $4 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 13h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 13h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 13h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel SELL Taro Daniel 48¢ $4 13h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 48¢ $14 20h
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $14 20h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 30¢ $3 22h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 10¢ $1 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 80¢ $8 23h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $9 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $5 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 100¢ $9 24h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 84¢ $7 24h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 49¢ $4 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 6¢ $1 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 57¢ $5 25h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 31¢ $3 26h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 32¢ $3 26h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +10.2% -0.3% 52% 51% +1.1%
≤30d 386 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 43% -6.4%
≤90d 437 +5.3% -4.7% 48% 47% -3.5%
all 437 +5.3% -4.7% 48% 47% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 47% -3.5%
10% -13.8% 46% -12.7%
15% -22.2% 45% -21.2%
20% -29.8% 43% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.32 · official $13.32 (match) · 945 history records