Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf473…6cda crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$63 (-6%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$204
sports 32% −$143
crypto 15% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.4% -26.2% 36% 36% -5.3%
≤30d 21 -36.4% -42.5% 29% 29% -12.8%
≤90d 21 -36.4% -42.5% 29% 29% -12.8%
all 21 -36.4% -42.5% 29% 29% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 29% -12.8%
10% -48.0% 24% -21.1%
15% -53.0% 19% -28.7%
20% -57.6% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$36 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage20d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $25 +$43 +170%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $102 −$89 -87%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$90 -88%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 28 $17 −$12 -66%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $81 +$14 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 +$346 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$79 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$16 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 2h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 34h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on BUY 5¢ $12 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 47h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 47h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 75¢ $95 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 47h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $547 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 16d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 16d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 16d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $21 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records