Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf476…bd48 crypto 362 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$452 (+3%) realized +$453 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%206W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$355
14 days−$106
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$947
sports 22% −$806
other 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 52% -2.1%
≤30d 361 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 55% -8.7%
≤90d 361 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 55% -8.7%
all 361 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 55% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 55% -8.7%
10% -16.9% 53% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 47% -25.4%
20% -32.3% 41% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$40 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$453
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses206 / 155
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)361 / 362
History coverage27d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$25 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$39 +148%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$33 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$88 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$33 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$36 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$28 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$22 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.94 · official $98.94 (match) · 666 history records