Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf478…9a04 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
other 18% +$2
politics 8% −$1
crypto 7% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -9.0%
all 44 -3.1% -12.3% 23% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -20.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage307d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $106 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $31 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $21 +$1 +5%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $35 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -48%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $8 +$1 +19%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $2 $0 -5%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $2 $0 +13%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $48 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $23 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 34h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $40 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $5 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $45 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $37 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.88 · official $45.88 (match) · 302 history records