Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf478…674e crypto 1971 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-3%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%1450W / 552L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$144
14 days−$131
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -48.7% -53.6% 39% 25% -55.0%
≤30d 1377 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 72% -12.9%
≤90d 2002 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 70% -13.7%
all 2002 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 70% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 70% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 55% -21.9%
15% -29.8% 19% -29.5%
20% -36.7% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1450 / 552
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2002 / 1971
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2002 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records