Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf47a…e499 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 18% -15.7%
≤30d 11 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 18% -15.7%
≤90d 11 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 18% -15.7%
all 11 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 18% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 18% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 9% -23.8%
15% -39.0% 0% -31.2%
20% -45.0% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $76 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $155 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$27 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $127 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $135 −$22 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $127 +$9 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $59 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records