Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf47d…2834 sports 915 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,567 (-5%) realized −$1,527 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%413W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$331est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$100
14 days−$147
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$2,089
crypto 24% −$245
other 1% +$266
culture 0% +$2
politics 0% −$5
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 51% -11.0%
≤30d 543 +1.7% -8.0% 51% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 854 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 45% -15.3%
all 907 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -15.1%
10% -19.0% 43% -23.2%
15% -26.8% 40% -30.6%
20% -34.0% 38% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1,527
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses413 / 494
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions2
Markets (closed)907 / 915
History coverage106d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 25¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $50 −$42 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -96%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $109 +$98 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $43 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$21 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$17 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$25 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -95%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$8 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $42 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $143 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $51 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $65 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $58 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $79.58 · 2194 history records