Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf47d…f295 crypto 864 markets active 0h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,188 (-3%) realized −$1,279 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%519W / 344L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$447
14 days−$447
30 days−$1,776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$344
sports 19% −$543
other 6% −$1,715
politics 5% +$1,721
world 3% −$854
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 40% -24.5%
≤30d 24 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 42% -40.9%
≤90d 343 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 52% -21.6%
all 863 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 55% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 55% -13.7%
10% -21.2% 41% -22.0%
15% -28.8% 27% -29.5%
20% -35.8% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$31 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$1,279
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses519 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)863 / 864
History coverage398d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 56¢ $0 $91 +$91 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $321 +$141 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $214 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $110 −$106 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $354 −$252 -71%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $348 +$14 +4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $384 +$145 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 −$118 -39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $357 −$353 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$56 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $71 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $76 +$11 +15%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $917 −$839 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 30 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $111 −$95 -86%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $264 −$97 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $58 +$33 +57%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 30 $141 +$34 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $116 +$26 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $200 −$142 -71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $203 −$160 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 19 $1,000 −$142 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner May 01 $54 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 01 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 01 $127 −$59 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $179 −$70 -39%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner May 01 $155 −$154 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 01 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $25 +$6 +25%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 01 $121 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $52 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 01 $25 +$4 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $203 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 01 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 01 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 01 $125 −$125 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $97 −$79 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 01 $51 +$8 +17%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $284 +$112 +40%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 01 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 01 $144 +$79 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $327 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $219 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $220 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $214 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $110 28m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $102 29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $354 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $362 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $348 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $40 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $303 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $227 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $182 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $183 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $357 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $358 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $302 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $71 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $123 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.11 · official $84.68 · 2164 history records