Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf47d…da66 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$290 (-10%) realized −$288 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$340
14 days−$307
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$5
other 40% −$234
world 2% −$28
crypto 2% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -35.2% -41.4% 30% 30% -40.7%
≤30d 86 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 34% -19.0%
≤90d 86 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 34% -19.0%
all 86 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 34% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 34% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -26.8%
15% -27.2% 29% -33.8%
20% -34.3% 27% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$28 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 57
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage14d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 52¢ 52¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 37¢ 34¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 +$23 +83%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 −$26 -95%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $32 +$18 +57%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $22 +$28 +124%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $24 −$24 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $27 +$53 +197%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$3 +20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 −$69 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $53 +$37 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $41 +$44 +108%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $28 −$18 -65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $28 +$22 +75%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $77 −$63 -82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$37 -37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $49 −$36 -74%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32 −$8 -26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $78 −$33 -42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $67 +$113 +170%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +42%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $32 +$68 +212%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $23 +$37 +156%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$63 +791%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$47 +153%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +234%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $22 +$28 +122%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$10 +76%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $32 +$42 +131%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 52¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $19 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 3¢ $1 15h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2 BUY 25¢ $10 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $24 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 27h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 29h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $30 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 90¢ $90 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 87¢ $85 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $10 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $28 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 0¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.22 · official $67.22 (match) · 312 history records