Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:20:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf483…54bb politics 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$432 (+18%) realized +$561 · open −$129
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$368
sports 31% −$173
crypto 13% +$203
other 9% +$24
economics 3% −$13
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +276.3% +240.4% 100% 100% +240.4%
≤30d 1 +276.3% +240.4% 100% 100% +240.4%
≤90d 1 +276.3% +240.4% 100% 100% +240.4%
all 56 +23.6% +11.8% 41% 39% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 39% +11.6%
10% +1.1% 36% +0.9%
15% -8.7% 36% -8.9%
20% -17.6% 34% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +276% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$26 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$561
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage613d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $35 +$96 +276%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during events with South Korean presi Aug 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18? Aug 19 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? Aug 17 $64 −$13 -21%
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Hannity interview on August 15? Aug 16 $23 +$40 +171%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August Aug 15 $13 +$11 +87%
Will Trump say "American Dream" during his University of Alabama comme Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? May 01 $115 +$13 +12%
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the Mar 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 Feb 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump and Elon say "trans" or "transgender during their Feb 18 in Feb 19 $120 −$105 -88%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $322 +$204 +64%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during victory rally? Jan 20 $117 +$205 +174%
Browns vs. Broncos Dec 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Dec 02 $18 +$68 +376%
Spurs vs. Kings Dec 02 $3 +$16 +614%
Thunder vs. Rockets Dec 02 $140 −$137 -98%
Eagles vs. Ravens Dec 02 $122 +$18 +15%
Steelers vs. Bengals Dec 01 $116 +$5 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? Dec 01 $57 +$59 +104%
Chiefs vs. Panthers Nov 28 $0 $0 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Nov 22 $0 $0 +257%
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Nov 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Giants vs. Panthers Nov 10 $79 −$9 -12%
Will Trump say "John McGuire" during Virginia rally on Nov 2? Nov 10 $44 −$30 -68%
Will Trump say "Teamster" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 02 $119 +$422 +354%
Will Trump say "teleprompter" 3 or more times during Nevada rally on O Nov 01 $80 +$39 +49%
Will Trump say "packers" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $29 +$51 +178%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nazi" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Rogan" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 30 $17 +$12 +72%
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Trump say "Catholic" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Illegal alien" 5 or more times during Georgia rally on Oct 29 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during Pennsylvania rally on October 2 Oct 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Pennsylvania rally on O Oct 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-26? Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton vs. Wolves end in a draw? Oct 26 $2 +$10 +488%
Will Trump say "Wall Street" during Michigan rally on October 25? Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Michigan rally on October 25? Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on Octob Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 4 or more times during Michigan r Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Oct 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Michigan rally on October 25? Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "women's sports" during Michigan rally on October 25? Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Michigan rally on Octo Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $131 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 3h
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 18¢ $10 125d
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during events with South Korean presi BUY No 52¢ $82 313d
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18? BUY No 61¢ $50 316d
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? SELL No 25¢ $50 316d
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? BUY No 32¢ $64 317d
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Hannity interview on August 15? BUY No 37¢ $23 317d
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August SELL No 99¢ $23 317d
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August BUY No 53¢ $13 318d
Will Trump say "American Dream" during his University of Alabama comme BUY No 33¢ $128 424d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 29¢ $128 424d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $115 447d
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the BUY No 22¢ $16 482d
Will Trump say "Hell" 5 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday? BUY No 31¢ $15 492d
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 BUY No 39¢ $15 494d
Will Trump and Elon say "trans" or "transgender during their Feb 18 in SELL No $15 494d
Will Trump and Elon say "trans" or "transgender during their Feb 18 in BUY No 25¢ $120 495d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? SELL No 100¢ $526 525d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? BUY No 61¢ $322 525d
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during victory rally? BUY No 36¢ $117 526d
Browns vs. Broncos BUY Browns 28¢ $86 574d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 21¢ $18 574d
Spurs vs. Kings SELL Spurs 100¢ $18 574d
Spurs vs. Kings BUY Spurs 14¢ $3 574d
Thunder vs. Rockets SELL Thunder $3 574d
Thunder vs. Rockets BUY Thunder 55¢ $140 574d
Eagles vs. Ravens SELL Eagles 100¢ $140 574d
Eagles vs. Ravens BUY Eagles 87¢ $122 574d
Steelers vs. Bengals BUY Steelers 96¢ $116 575d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 122 history records