Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf48a…34e2
crypto · 164 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$68 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$136 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses93 / 69
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day63.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$154
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 56¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 36¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOUD 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Saigon Dino 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 76¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $95 −$41 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$10 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +158%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% −$120
sports 40% −$17
other 5% −$2
politics 4% +$3
weather 1% −$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 58¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $13 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $10 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 62¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $84 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $49 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -7.0% -15.9% 54% 33% -23.5%
≤30d 162 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 35% -21.2%
≤90d 162 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 35% -21.2%
all 162 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 35% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 35% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 23% -28.8%
15% -28.4% 15% -35.7%
20% -35.4% 9% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.71 · official $2.71 (match) · 569 history records