trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 75% | 75% | +4.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 75% | 75% | +4.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 75% | 75% | +4.7% |
| all | 27 | -26.3% | -33.3% | 41% | 33% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.3% | 33% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -39.7% | 22% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -45.5% | 15% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -50.9% | 4% | -33.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +105% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +44% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 special election? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Feb 27 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 | Dec 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition | Oct 28 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August? | Sep 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Mary Sheffield win the 2025 Detroit mayoral election? | Aug 07 | $1 | $0 | +26% |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? | Jul 26 | $1 | $0 | +45% |
| Will Sarah Snook win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? | Jun 27 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 09 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? | Apr 09 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| $COIN added to S&P 500 in 2024? | Mar 24 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk settle lawsuit with OpenAI before 2025? | Mar 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Mar 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Elon Musk citizenship revoked before inauguration? | Mar 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Nancy Mace's trans bathroom bill pass in 2024? | Mar 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| RFK Jr & Cheryl Hines divorce in 2024? | Dec 26 | $0 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Levon Aronian win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Dec 25 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 13-20? | Dec 25 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | Dec 16 | $550 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza? | Dec 16 | $540 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Wizards win again this year? | Dec 16 | $577 | $0 | +0% |