Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf491…a078 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$220 (-37%) realized −$223 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$201
other 10% +$8
tech 10% −$60
politics 6% −$5
sports 6% +$77
crypto 5% −$21
culture 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.9% -5.1% 23% 23% -18.7%
≤30d 15 +15.0% +4.1% 27% 27% +17.8%
≤90d 15 +15.0% +4.1% 27% 27% +17.8%
all 20 -13.7% -21.9% 20% 20% -51.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 20% -51.9%
10% -29.4% 20% -56.5%
15% -36.2% 20% -60.7%
20% -42.5% 15% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$24 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage359d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? No 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +314%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$62 +619%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 11 $51 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025? Aug 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Aug 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 30 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 36h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 36h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 36h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 36h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 36h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY No 14¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.56 · official $107.62 (match) · 63 history records