Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf493…ce3b crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-7%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$128
finance 26% +$26
other 23% +$48
sports 2% −$19
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% +7.9%
≤30d 8 -43.3% -48.7% 38% 38% +7.9%
≤90d 41 -24.4% -31.6% 51% 41% -16.3%
all 54 -28.0% -34.9% 44% 35% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 35% -17.8%
10% -41.1% 26% -25.6%
15% -46.8% 17% -32.8%
20% -52.0% 13% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage104d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +41%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$29 +54%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$24 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 17 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 15 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 06 $43 −$38 -88%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? Apr 16 $60 −$12 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 15 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 13 $69 +$19 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 13 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +53%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +78%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Solana reach $90 March 30-April 5? Apr 05 $43 −$42 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $13 −$9 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $129 +$6 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Mar 29 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Mar 28 $11 +$5 +51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $31 +$4 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 26 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 42h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 42h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 37d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 46d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 66d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 67d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? BUY No 16¢ $8 68d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.19 · official $77.19 (match) · 181 history records