Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf494…a0d8 other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-49%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$1
crypto 17% −$1
sports 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.8% -46.4% 40% 40% -46.1%
≤30d 6 -50.6% -55.3% 33% 33% -55.0%
≤90d 6 -50.6% -55.3% 33% 33% -55.0%
all 6 -50.6% -55.3% 33% 33% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 33% -55.0%
10% -59.6% 33% -59.3%
15% -63.5% 33% -63.3%
20% -67.1% 17% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records