Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F4 0xf494…8a85 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$604 (-67%) realized −$255 · open −$349

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip

Net edge-74%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%2W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$136

7 days−$136

14 days−$136

30 days−$136

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-74.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	9	-71.8%	-74.5%	22%	22%	-92.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-74.5%	22%	-92.9%
10%	-76.9%	22%	-93.6%
15%	-79.2%	0%	-94.2%
20%	-81.2%	0%	-94.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -72% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$43 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage

Net worth$200

Realized−$255

Unrealized−$349

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses2 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage129d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$125	$104	−$21 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	Yes	7¢	1¢	$417	$89	−$328 (-79%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$7	$8	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Jun 21	$136	−$136	-100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car	Apr 08	$84	−$83	-99%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia	Feb 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia	Feb 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Men's Round of 16 - Czechia vs. Denmark	Feb 17	$10	+$3	+28%
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia	Feb 13	$10	+$3	+26%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark	Feb 12	$14	−$14	-100%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada	Feb 12	$34	−$34	-100%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi	Feb 12	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$133	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$8	4d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	BUY Yes	7¢	$423	12d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	16d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$115	52d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	BUY No	1¢	$16	52d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	BUY No	1¢	$5	54d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car	BUY Jirí Procházka	52¢	$84	74d
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia	BUY Czechia	10¢	$10	123d
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia	BUY Latvia	9¢	$5	124d
Men's Round of 16 - Czechia vs. Denmark	SELL Czechia	100¢	$13	124d
Men's Round of 16 - Czechia vs. Denmark	BUY Czechia	78¢	$10	124d
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia	SELL Czechia	100¢	$13	128d
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia	BUY Czechia	80¢	$10	128d
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark	BUY Denmark	28¢	$14	129d
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada	BUY Czechia	5¢	$4	129d
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada	BUY Czechia	9¢	$10	129d
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi	BUY Yes	2¢	$20	129d
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada	BUY Czechia	17¢	$20	129d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.28 · official $200.28 (match) · 20 history records