Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F4 0xf495…d3b5 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,316 (+67%) realized +$1,319 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$39est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$458

7 days+$526

14 days+$526

30 days+$526

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+32.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+21.2%	+9.7%	62%	62%	+18.2%
≤30d	16	+21.2%	+9.7%	62%	62%	+18.2%
≤90d	17	+46.0%	+32.1%	65%	65%	+56.7%
all	17	+46.0%	+32.1%	65%	65%	+56.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.1%	65%	+56.7%
10%	+19.4%	65%	+41.7%
15%	+7.9%	59%	+28.0%
20%	-2.7%	59%	+15.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +40% → late +51% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$180 vs −$96 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized+$1,319

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$39

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage41d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$104	+$126	+121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$8	+31%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$137	+$83	+61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$102	+$100	+99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$152	+$87	+57%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$100	+$153	+153%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$143	+$198	+138%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$152	+$145	+95%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$127	+$96	+76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$105	−$104	-99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$101	−$100	-99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$100	+$108	+107%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 14	$77	−$75	-98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$100	−$99	-98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	May 10	$198	+$877	+442%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$26	31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$230	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$34	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Jordan	90¢	$220	15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$104	18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$202	19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	55¢	$137	21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$101	21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	SELL Norway	94¢	$238	21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$152	25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$102	25h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	86¢	$253	25h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	33¢	$100	26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$102	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	52¢	$341	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Ciryl Gane	99¢	$297	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	100¢	$0	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	100¢	$223	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$105	3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$101	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$208	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$100	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$143	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	56¢	$127	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	50¢	$152	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	22¢	$77	3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$100	6d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Sean Strickland	18¢	$198	40d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.32 · official $22.32 (match) · 30 history records