Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf497…5ce0 sports 1327 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,924 (-4%) realized −$1,850 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%601W / 722L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$875est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days+$85
14 days−$141
30 days−$11,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$912
other 8% −$189
crypto 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 42% -7.6%
≤30d 521 -67.5% -70.6% 17% 16% -59.7%
≤90d 1323 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 45% -11.5%
all 1323 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 45% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 43% -20.0%
15% -30.1% 40% -27.7%
20% -37.0% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$1,850
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses601 / 722
Est. fees paid−$875
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1323 / 1327
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-7%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 6¢ $25 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 12¢ $45 $12 −$32 (-72%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 2¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $34 +$16 +48%
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $17 −$16 -96%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 26 $32 −$32 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $40 +$63 +158%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $61 +$39 +65%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $45 −$44 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $55 −$54 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $39 −$38 -99%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals Jun 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $88 +$44 +50%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $19 −$16 -84%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$19 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $99 −$41 -41%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $35 +$15 +44%
Kawkab AC vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $31 +$19 +62%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $43 +$3 +7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $32 −$18 -56%
Kawkab AC vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Kawkab AC vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$25 +97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $64 +$36 +57%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $86 +$151 +175%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $41 +$14 +33%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $32 +$68 +212%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $68 +$32 +47%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $68 +$32 +47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $68 +$32 +47%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $32 +$8 +25%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $32 +$6 +18%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $60 −$59 -99%
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $62 −$61 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $59 −$58 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $142 +$68 +48%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $501 −$100 -20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $61 +$83 +135%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $529 +$57 +11%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $53 +$47 +90%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $37 −$36 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $65 −$64 -99%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 22 $48 +$48 +100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $69 +$31 +45%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $64 +$36 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $31 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $1 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $17 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $34 6h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $9 6h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $22 6h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $12 6h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $7 6h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $45 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 24h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $40 24h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 24h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $39 26h
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $45 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $19 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $56 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $83 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 9¢ $46 28h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $14 28h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $32 29h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.58 · official $74.58 (match) · 3500 history records