Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf498…6f2b other 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$431 (+5%) realized +$442 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%66W / 34L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$742
14 days+$681
30 days+$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$642
politics 14% −$37
sports 14% −$185
finance 4% +$30
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% +$20
tech 1% +$8
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 52% +7.5%
≤30d 44 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 52% +1.2%
≤90d 59 -3.9% -13.1% 54% 47% -3.3%
all 100 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 44% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 44% -3.7%
10% -18.2% 28% -12.9%
15% -26.1% 15% -21.3%
20% -33.4% 7% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized+$442
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses66 / 34
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 105
History coverage148d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $476 $471 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 62¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$3 +9%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $152 +$47 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$36 -88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $3,432 +$690 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$11 +64%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$6 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$26 -56%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$30 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 +$7 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$8 -57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $107 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $19 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$11 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $63 −$47 -74%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $1,064 −$29 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 10 $12 $0 -3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $14 +$5 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $10 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $15 +$2 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 25 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? May 20 $86 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 62¢ $24 9m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 10m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 62¢ $74 14m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 91¢ $33 24m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 30m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 66¢ $5 37m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 64¢ $17 38m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $51 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $40 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $30 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 78¢ $199 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $15 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 11h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 25h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.28 · official $550.29 (match) · 644 history records