Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F4 0xf499…f612 crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,512 (+12%) realized +$1,517 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 104L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1,679
politics 5% −$177
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 14 -44.6% -49.9% 21% 21% +5.6%
all 124 +14.2% +3.4% 16% 16% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 16% -1.2%
10% -6.5% 16% -10.7%
15% -15.6% 16% -19.3%
20% -23.8% 16% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$91 · ×6.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$1,517
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage270d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $95 $91 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? Apr 13 $174 +$327 +188%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? Apr 10 $100 +$74 +74%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 9? Apr 10 $96 +$204 +213%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $75 −$69 -93%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? Apr 07 $18 −$17 -93%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 7? Apr 07 $50 −$47 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 5? Apr 04 $167 −$157 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 4? Apr 04 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 4? Apr 04 $50 −$46 -93%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? Apr 03 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 3? Apr 03 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3? Apr 03 $50 −$47 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $50 −$47 -93%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 9? Dec 09 $79 +$129 +164%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 8? Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 8? Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 14? Nov 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 15? Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $194 −$73 -38%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $100 +$179 +179%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 08 $159 −$143 -90%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 5? Nov 05 $100 +$140 +140%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on November 1? Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 1? Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 31? Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on October 31? Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 26? Oct 26 $299 −$299 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 25? Oct 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 24? Oct 24 $619 −$619 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 24? Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 24? Oct 24 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 23? Oct 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 23? Oct 23 $115 +$1,179 +1025%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 23? Oct 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 23? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 25? Oct 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 22? Oct 21 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 22? Oct 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 21? Oct 21 $128 +$180 +140%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 21? Oct 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 20? Oct 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 20? Oct 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 20? Oct 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 19? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 19? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 19? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on October 19? Oct 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $97 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $501 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $174 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 9? BUY Yes 30¢ $96 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 5¢ $70 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 80d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 80d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 5? BUY Yes 15¢ $167 82d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 4? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 83d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 83d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 83d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 9? SELL Yes 61¢ $208 198d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 9? BUY Yes 23¢ $79 199d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 200d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 200d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 200d
Will the government shutdown end November 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 225d
Will the government shutdown end November 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 225d
Will the government shutdown end November 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.18 · official $190.18 (match) · 236 history records