Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf49a…8981 sports 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,484 (-9%) realized −$3,484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%190W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$498est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,726
7 days−$1,229
14 days−$1,725
30 days−$5,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$4,059
crypto 23% −$427
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 36% -20.1%
≤30d 426 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 39% -23.8%
≤90d 449 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 40% -20.1%
all 449 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 40% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -20.1%
10% -25.3% 38% -27.8%
15% -32.6% 33% -34.7%
20% -39.2% 30% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$67 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses190 / 259
Est. fees paid−$498
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 449
History coverage64d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$7 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$23 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$64 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$1 -5%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $156 +$33 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $119 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$39 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$11 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $202 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$62 +90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $140 −$42 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $182 −$27 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $115 +$60 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $357 −$248 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $126 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $134 −$45 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $137 +$17 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$21 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $44 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1282 history records