Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf49a…1df0 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-34%) realized −$207 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$96
sports 18% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -31.5%
≤30d 6 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -31.5%
≤90d 6 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -31.5%
all 7 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 43% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 43% -45.8%
10% -38.0% 43% -51.0%
15% -44.0% 43% -55.8%
20% -49.5% 29% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$84 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage106d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $69 $72 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $86 +$45 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $70 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 15¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $86 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 4d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 13¢ $108 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.71 · official $86.33 · 12 history records