Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf49b…7020 sports 1719 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1712W / 4L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$2
other 48% +$14
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1299 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1716 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 1716 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1712 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1716 / 1719
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire - Who wins the toss? Lancashire 100¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "History" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Japan vs Sweden FIF Jun 26 $5 $0 -10%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Aboian vs. Casanova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Targu Mures (Doubles): Prashanth/Ramanathan vs Latinovic/Vrbensky Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Marcinko vs Keys Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Barrientos/Behar vs. Loof/Uesugi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Betray" 3+ times during Love Island E20? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux/Martineau (-1.5) vs Jans/Visker (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Fancutt/Rai vs. Dev/Sinha: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-3.5) vs IGZIST (+3.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Red Flag" during Love Island E20? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: TES.A (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Arda Güler: 2+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Haji Wright: 3+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Haji Wright: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ramón Sosa: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 2+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Cam Schlittler: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Benjamin Nygren: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Franck Kessié: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tunisia to win the second half? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-5.5) vs Nightblood Gaming (+5.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-2.5) vs Nightblood Gaming (+2.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Shopify Rebellion Black (-2.5) vs NRG Academy ( Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 56m
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire - Who wins the toss? BUY Lancashire 100¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Japan vs Sweden FIF BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Aboian vs. Casanova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Targu Mures (Doubles): Prashanth/Ramanathan vs Latinovic/Vrbensky BUY Latinovic/Vrbensky 100¢ $5 5h
Set 1 Winner: Marcinko vs Keys BUY Keys 100¢ $5 5h
Barrientos/Behar vs. Loof/Uesugi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 5h
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux/Martineau (-1.5) vs Jans/Visker (+1.5) BUY Jans/Visker 100¢ $5 6h
Fancutt/Rai vs. Dev/Sinha: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 6h
Will anyone say "Betray" 3+ times during Love Island E20? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 100¢ $5 8h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: REJECT (-3.5) vs IGZIST (+3.5) BUY IGZIST 100¢ $5 9h
Will anyone say "Red Flag" during Love Island E20? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Game Handicap: TES.A (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) BUY TOP Esports Armor 100¢ $5 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Arda Güler: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 11h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Haji Wright: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Haji Wright: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.00 · official $12.00 (match) · 3500 history records