Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf49c…9786
other · 56 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,299 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,235 · open −$14,605
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 156 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,235
7 days−$9,235
14 days−$9,235
30 days−$9,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $27,683 $26,125 −$1,558 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21,069 $20,702 −$367 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20,318 $20,517 +$199 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17,901 $17,937 +$36 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16,116 $16,028 −$88 (-1%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,475 $11,836 −$639 (-5%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10,764 $9,940 −$824 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,627 $9,705 +$1,078 (+12%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $7,803 $8,311 +$508 (+7%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $8,400 $8,250 −$150 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,600 $8,075 +$475 (+6%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $8,791 $6,986 −$1,805 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,220 $6,458 +$238 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,810 $6,385 +$575 (+10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5,866 $6,306 +$440 (+7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,218 $6,150 +$932 (+18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $3,744 $5,695 +$1,951 (+52%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $8,499 $5,496 −$3,004 (-35%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,500 $5,250 +$750 (+17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,566 $5,200 −$366 (-7%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $4,730 $5,052 +$323 (+7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,000 $5,000 +$1,000 (+25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,047 $4,570 +$1,523 (+50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $4,500 +$1,500 (+50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,500 $4,275 −$225 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 12 $2,369 −$2,369 -100%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $2,283 −$2,283 -100%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $616 −$616 -100%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $308 −$267 -87%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $127 −$112 -89%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $82 −$77 -94%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $44 +$507 +1156%
Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $2,232 −$2,232 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$15,323
sports 1% −$97
world 0% +$814
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 0m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2m
Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 3m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 9m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 11m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 14m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 15m
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 17m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $61 17m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
≤30d 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
≤90d 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
all 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3496.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 7% -94.4%
10% -24.8% 7% -94.9%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 7% -95.4%
20% -38.7% 7% -95.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291,824.72 · official $291,848.79 (match) · 3500 history records