Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf49f…2661 other 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$681 (-15%) realized −$681 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%150W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$198
14 days−$162
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$276
sports 27% −$199
world 16% +$23
crypto 9% −$73
politics 7% −$100
finance 3% −$23
tech 3% −$39
weather 2% −$50
culture 1% −$38
economics 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -57.7% -61.8% 11% 11% -51.8%
≤30d 89 -20.1% -27.7% 26% 24% -16.4%
≤90d 421 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 21% -25.9%
all 571 -17.8% -25.7% 26% 19% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 19% -24.7%
10% -32.8% 15% -31.9%
15% -39.3% 12% -38.5%
20% -45.2% 10% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$681
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses150 / 421
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)571 / 571
History coverage203d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 571 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$13 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 16 $42 −$14 -33%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $47 +$21 +45%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events? Jun 16 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 6? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $37 −$15 -42%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$4 -15%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 16 $5 −$4 -81%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -74%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +242%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $15 +$2 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $20 +$15 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $5 +$14 +273%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$2 -15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -46%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $5 −$1 -27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 +$12 +34%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $15 +$6 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con SELL No 5¢ $1 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $3 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $1 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $0 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $5 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $5 20h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $5 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2553 history records