Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf4a0…b306 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$62 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$101
sports 29% +$96
crypto 15% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.7% -7.1% 26% 26% -4.4%
≤30d 19 +2.7% -7.1% 26% 26% -4.4%
≤90d 19 +2.7% -7.1% 26% 26% -4.4%
all 19 +2.7% -7.1% 26% 26% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 26% -4.4%
10% -16.0% 26% -13.5%
15% -24.1% 26% -21.9%
20% -31.6% 21% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$10 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)19 / 33
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $65 $56 −$9 (-14%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $22 −$7 (-25%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$47 +459%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$9 -23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $40 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $69 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $50 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $40 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $57 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.00 · official $290.92 (match) · 52 history records